Assessment of the Scope of Tasks to Completely Phase out Fossil Fuels in Hawaiʻi

Abstract

The task of phasing out fossil fuels is upon us. All fossil fuel systems are about to be phased out and replaced with something else. The next industrial era will be powered by different energy-consuming and power generation technologies than we use now. An assessment of the scope of tasks to do this for the State of Hawaiʻi was conducted.

All major aspects of industrial and economic activity in the State of Hawaiʻi were examined and mapped out in the context of the state’s officially reported data for the calendar year 2019. This year was selected, as it was the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic supply chain disruptions. After this year, many data surveys were discontinued or reported unusual data signatures if they were operating. Therefore, 2019 was the last well-reported calendar year that showed normal operation. Areas of study ranged from commerce, trade, energy consumption, petroleum consumption, electricity generation, and the various natural and geographical resources available across the principal Hawaiian Islands. Basing calculations on total energy consumption reported by the State of Hawaiʻi, the size and form of the Hawaiian transport fleet were mapped in full, estimating the mechanical work performed for the calendar year 2019. This included transport vehicle classes, from light duty to heavy duty ground transportation to domestic maritime shipping and aviation.

For this report, a scope of tasks was defined, and a series of non-fossil fuel solutions were evaluated, each representing a public policy or paradigm. These policies were each represented as scenarios. Each scenario was referenced within a naming convention “H(X).”

The first four scenarios were designed to be boundary condition estimates for broad brush policies like all systems were electrified (Scenario HA), all systems were hydrogen-fueled (Scenario HB), all systems were biomass and biofuel supported (Scenario HC), and all existing Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technology was to be fueled with ammonia (Scenario HD). The electrical power required for each scenario was then modelled in the context of exclusive power generation by each of the available non-fossil fuel power generation systems. This included solar PV, wind turbines, hydroelectricity, biomass-fueled Combined Heat and Power (CHP), conventional nuclear power, geothermal energy, and ocean energy. An analysis of status quo conditions was also conducted. All Hydrogen production is electrolytic.

These four scenarios are not the basis for real-world implementation but would serve as a foundation for developing hybrid solutions using the technologies examined in Scenarios HA to HD.

The first of these hybrids was Scenario HE-Hybrid 1, which was to model the Green Transition as promoted internationally as the current consensus to phase out fossil fuels. The approach was to apply these non-fossil fuel options in context with what was practical in Hawaiʻi and what rules and regulations would allow.