Price volatility characteristics and policy implications of freshwater fish in China

Abstract

The fisheries industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, but it is also encountering the challenge of frequent fluctuations in aquatic product prices. Freshwater fish aquaculture plays a crucial role in China's fisheries industry. Analyzing the characteristics of price volatility in freshwater fish is crucial to ensure a stable supply of aquatic products and promote sustainable fisheries industry development. This study focuses on four freshwater fish species, namely crucian carp, grass carp, silver carp, and carp, to analyze the price volatility characteristics of freshwater fish in China from 2006 to 2022. The study uses the price decomposition method and the ARCH model. The results indicate that, from the perspective of dominant characteristics of price volatility, the prices of freshwater fish display periodic volatility with an overall upward trend, as well as significant seasonal and random variations. From the perspective of recessive price volatility characteristics, the price volatility of freshwater fish exhibits clustering and asymmetry. This indicates that the price volatility of freshwater fish is influenced by previous price volatility. Positive news has a greater impact on the price volatility of freshwater fish than negative news. Out of the four freshwater fish species, only the price of crucian carp is characterized by high-risk and high-return volatility.